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El peine del tejedor

Vientos de guerra

Israel celebró ayer su 62 aniversario y, como cada año, la prensa se ha entregado a la publicación de interminables y sesudos análisis sobre el futuro del Estado, sin duda avivados por el reciente encontronazo con los Estados Unidos.

La preocupación de los que opinan, de los que piensan Israel desde dentro de Israel, de los que vaticinan, se concentra unánimemente en diseccionar las (pesimistas) consecuencias de una realidad: la ocupación. “La Ocupación tiene que ser identificada por lo que ha llegado a ser: el mayor enemigo de Israel”, escribía este domingo en el Haaretz Bradley Bruston en un artículo titulado “Declarar la Independencia. Liberar Israel. Finalizar la ocupación”. Ni Irán, ni Hizbulá, ni Hamás. Para el autor, “hay un nombre para la sistemática quema de nuestros puentes con el mundo, -dice-, con nuestros amigos, con la mayoría del mundo judío, todo por el bien de los asentamientos, todo por el bien de la ocupación permanente: suicidio”.

El problema es cuando el mundo árabe está completamente de acuerdo con ese diagnóstico. Y ejemplo de ello es la entrevista concedida hace unos días por el rey jordano al Chicago Tribune. En ella, Abdullah II avanza la posible retirada en julio de la llamada “iniciativa árabe de paz”, -la “solución de 57 estados”, que ofrece a Israel la paz con los 57 miembros de la Organización de la Conferencia Islámica a cambio de que regrese a las fronteras anteriores a 1967-, y vuelve a advertir del peligro de una guerra. Este mismo verano. “Israel tiene sobradas razones para preocuparse en su 63º año”, es un comentario a tener en cuenta publicado hoy por el analista militar del Haaretz, Amos Harel.

A riesgo de hacer esto interminable, un último artículo que aparece hoy en la edición en hebreo del diario Maariv, “Otra victoria de los asentamientos”, donde se refleja la realidad terrible de que la presunta congelación de las colonias es una mentira y que el discurso de la paz  se ha convertido en una herramienta para ganar tiempo aunque, paradójicamente, la última víctima pueda ser al final el propio Estado de Israel. Aquí está una traducción en inglés:

Another Victory for the Settlements

Ma’ariv (p. B3) by Shalom Yerushalmi (op-ed) — If I were a settler, I would ask Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to impose another freeze period on me.  In the past months, since it was decided to halt construction in the settlements, hundreds of houses have been completed throughout Judea and Samaria for which the foundations were laid.  Other houses were built despite the freeze.  There was a committee for exceptional cases that approved them.  Handsome compensation was paid for houses that were not built in the settlements.  “There has not been such a construction boom here for a long time,” my friend Asi Levy from Karnei Shomron reported to me with satisfaction.

   The settlers, who staged uncompromising demonstrations against the freeze at the beginning, have fallen silent.  They have understood that all in all, this is a worthwhile business.  No more mass rallies in front of Netanyahu’s residence.  No more comparisons between the building inspectors and the British policemen from the days of the White Paper.  Very soon, the protest tent that was set up at the beginning of the year in front of the Prime Minister’s Office was also dismantled.

   The attacks against Netanyahu also ceased.  MK Yaakov Katz, chairman of the National Union, an opposition party, sent him a clear message yesterday.  “We won’t let you fall,” he promised.

   In exactly five months, if no dramatic changes take place, an official construction boom will start in all the settlements.  Netanyahu promised everywhere that the freeze was a tactical move, or in other words, an empty move, and now he will have to prove that he was not pulling the wool over anyone’s eyes.

   “After the freeze, you’ll build four times as much,” Likud Central Committee member Uri Faraj shouted at Netanyahu at the time, and the prime minister nodded smilingly.  At another opportunity he said to Knesset Speaker Ruby Rivlin, “let’s make a bet that there will be no freeze, even if there is a diplomatic process.”

   The members of the forum of seven are also waiting for the moment when they will be able to tell their settler allies “we told you so.”  After all, Benny Begin promised, during a tour he held in Beit Hagai in the southern Hebron hills at the beginning of February, that “tens of thousands of Jews will soon come to settle in Judea and Samaria,” and added that “this great enterprise cannot be stopped.”  Begin, who likes to quote from the statements of others and always proposes that these statements be taken seriously, would not like to have a mockery made of his words.  On different opportunities he has referred to the freeze as a kind of maneuver intended to legitimize widespread construction throughout the territory.

   Netanyahu understands that he will not be able to continue the freeze, because his coalition has him by the throat.  The prime minister regards the freeze the same way he treated the [idea of a] Palestinian state: He declares, but does not want to fulfill.

   However, Netanyahu knows that canceling the freeze will exacerbate the crisis with the Americans.  Senior officials here are already preparing for the next rift, but presume that the American president will weaken in November, after the mid-term Congressional elections.  Some of them happily point at polls that predict a large Republican victory.

   Netanyahu will be able to argue that the Palestinians did not renew negotiations, and did not even consent to proximity talks.  This explanation will also be seized upon by Ehud Barak, who does not really believe in negotiations with the Palestinians and has neither the interest nor the motivation to leave the government.

   So winter has passed, the rain is over and gone, flowers appear on the earth and the time of singing has come [reference to Song of Songs 2:11-12], and the settlers have quietly scored another impressive victory, bringing us closer to a bi-national state.

 

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